Appendix CAppendix C
JLL Market Study
Market Study:
Rye Brook Senior Living
900 King Street
Rye Brook, New York 10573
Prepared for: George Comfort & Sons, Inc.
JLL File Number: 1400-17-133746
700 E. Campbell Road, Suite 265, Richardson, TX 75081
Phone: 972 960 1222 Fax: 972 960 2922
October 25, 2017
Mr. Karl D. Mittermayr
Vice President
George Comfort & Sons, Inc.
200 Madison Avenue
New York, New York 10016
Subject: Rye Brook Senior Living
900 King Street
Rye Brook, New York 10573
Pursuant to your request, we have completed a Market Study for the above referenced property. Accompanying
this letter is a self-contained report that includes a detailed identification of the property, factual data concerning
the property and its surroundings, comparable market data, appropriate analyses, and conclusions and
recommendations. Please note that JLL is not part of the development team, owner of the site, nor affiliated with
any member of the development team engaged in the project. The scope of the assignment consists of an
overview of the project, the delineation and analysis of the primary market area (PMA), an analysis of supply
conditions, pipeline research, and demand estimates.
Summary of Conclusions
Based upon our analysis, we conclude there to be sufficient demand to support the development of the subject
as proposed with 160 independent living units, 12 independent living duplexes (24 cottages), and 85 assisted
living beds (including a 30-bed memory care component). Development should proceed as planned.
We appreciate this opportunity to provide our advisory services to George Comfort & Sons, Inc..
JLL Valuation and Advisory Services, LLC
Jon Cruse
Senior Vice President
Telephone: 214-396-5463
Email: jon.cruse@am.jll.com
Brian L. Chandler, MAI, CRE, FRICS
Executive Vice President
Telephone: 214-396-5423
Email: brian.chandler@am.jll.com
Table of Contents 2
Rye Brook Senior Living
Table of Contents
Page No.
Letter of Transmittal 1
Table of Contents 2
Summary of Salient Facts and Conclusions 3
Regional Economic Analysis 5
Market Area Description and Analysis 12
Site Description and Analysis 26
Improvement Description and Analysis 36
Legal Constraints Analysis 39
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 41
Supply and Demand Analysis 57
Summary of Salient Facts and Conclusions 3
Rye Brook Senior Living
Summary of Salient Facts and Conclusions
George Comfort & Sons, Inc. has commissioned this study to assess the market-based opportunity for a proposed
seniors housing community to be located in the village of Rye Brook, Westchester County, New York. The subject,
which will be known as Rye Brook Senior Living, will be situated on a 17.8-acre site at 900 King Street. The site
currently consists of an existing two and three-story office building. Plans are to demolish the building and
construct a senior housing community with a total of 160 independent living units and 85 assisted living beds
(including a 30-bed memory care component). Note that plans are also for the development of 12 free-standing
independent living duplexes (24 cottages) along the western side of the main building.
Rendering of Rye Brook Senior Living
Pertinent Dates
Dates pertinent to this assignment are as follows:
Item Date
Report Date October 25, 2017
Effective Date October 11, 2017
Pertinent Dates
Inspection
Sean M. Reilly MAI has previously conducted an inspection of the development site and neighborhood. Although
Jon Cruse and Brian L. Chandler, MAI, CRE, FRICS have not personally inspected the development site, both are
experienced in the market familiar with the competitive landscape.
Summary of Salient Facts and Conclusions 4
Rye Brook Senior Living
Conclusions and Recommendations
Pertinent conclusions and recommendations are as follows:
Market Area Description and Analysis
Considering population density, commuting patterns (drive times), physical and psychological barriers, and the
concentration of competing facilities’ located throughout the area, we have concluded the appropriate primary
market area (PMA) to be the area constrained by the following zip codes: 10504, 06831, 06830, 105773, 10580,
10528, 10543, 10804, 10709, 10583, 10605, 10606, 10601, 10607, 10523, 10603, 10604, and 10577. In this
market, we believe that the majority of demand will come from the PMA. No measurable draw from a secondary
market area is forecast. The PMA, which is supported by 10 and 15-minute drive times, encompasses all and/or
parts of Rye Brook, Port Chester, Harrison, Purchase, Armonk, Scarsdale, Rye, Valhalla, Elmsford, Eastchester,
Mamaroneck, and White Plains in New York, as well as Greenwich, Connecticut. The primary land use in the area
is single-family residential and the area is approximately 85% developed. The PMA is expected to experience
slightly below average population growth. The slow growth rate is attributable to the nearly fully built out nature of
the area. It has above average income levels. The area is considered to be in a stage of growth. Between 2017
and 2021, the market area is forecast to experience growth in demand for seniors housing, but at a below average
rate relative to the nation as a whole. Housing values in the PMA are above average.
Supply and Demand Analysis
The PMA is a growing market with high barriers to entry. Our analysis shows that the assisted living (including
memory care) and independent living segments to be under-supplied at this time. This is supported by the higher
occupancies reported throughout each segment (95% for assisted living (including memory care), 92% specific to
memory care, and 93% for independent living). Several known pipeline projects are forecast to come online within
the next 24 to 36 months. These projects combine for a total of 399 independent living units (including the subject’s
184 independent living units) and 346 assisted living/memory care beds (including the subject’s 85 assisted living
beds, of which 30 of which are to be dedicated memory care).
• There are currently 621 competitive assisted living beds within the PMA. With a demand figure for 1,687
beds in 2019 and a pipeline supply of 346 beds (including the subject’s 85 assisted living beds – which
includes a 30-bed memory care component), there is forecast to be excess demand for an additional 720
beds.
• Specific to memory care, with a total supply figure of only 166 competitive beds, a pipeline supply of 110
beds (including the subject’s 30-bed memory care component), and an estimated demand figure for 590
beds in 2019, there is forecast to be excess unmet demand for an additional 319 beds.
• Lastly, there are 548 competitive independent living units within the PMA at this time. With an anticipated
demand figure for 2,364 units in 2019 and a pipeline supply of 399 units (including the subject’s 160
independent living units), there is indicated to be excess demand for an additional 1,417 units.
Considering the strong growth forecast in seniors housing over the next few years, market conditions are
anticipated to continually improve and strengthen. Development of the subject as proposed with 160 independent
living units, 12 independent living duplexes (24 cottages), and 85 assisted living beds (including a 30-bed memory
care component). Development should proceed as planned.
Regional Economic Analysis 5
Rye Brook Senior Living
Regional Economic Analysis
The subject is located in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area, hereinafter
called the New York MSA, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. The New York MSA is 8,294
square miles in size, and is the first most populous metropolitan area in the nation.
Population
The New York MSA has an estimated 2017 population of 20,249,968, which represents an average annual 0.5%
increase over the 2010 census amount of 19,567,410. New York MSA added an average of 97,508 residents per
year over the 2010 - 2017 period, and its annual growth rate is less than that of the United States.
Looking forward, the New York MSA’s population is projected to increase at a 0.7% annual rate from 2017 - 2022,
equivalent to the addition of an average of 133,448 residents per year. The New York MSA growth rate is
expected to lag that of the United States, which is projected to be 0.8%.
Population Trends
Population
2010 Census 2017 Est.2022 Est.2010 - 2017 2017 - 2022
New York MSA 19,567,410 20,249,968 20,917,210 0.5%0.7%
United States 308,745,538 323,580,626 337,326,118 0.7%0.8%
Source: Esri 2017. Compiled by JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, LLC.
Compound Ann. % Chng
New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA
Regional Economic Analysis 6
Rye Brook Senior Living
Employment
The current estimate of total employment in the New York MSA is 9,337,200 jobs. Since 2006, employment grew
by 616,900 jobs, equivalent to a 7.1% gain over the entire period. There were gains in employment in seven of the
past ten years despite the national economic downturn and slow recovery.
The New York MSA's rate of change in employment outperformed the United States, which experienced an
increase in employment of 4.0% or 5,412,000 over this period.
A comparison of unemployment rates is another way of gauging an area’s economic health, where a higher
unemployment rate is a negative indicator. Over the past decade, the New York MSA unemployment rate of 6.9%
has been lower than the United States rate of 7.0%. In the latter half of the decade the trend has continued, with
the New York MSA performing similarly to the United States. Recent data shows that the New York MSA
unemployment rate is 4.8%, in comparison to a 4.5% rate for the United States, a negative sign for the New York
MSA economy, although it should be noted the New York MSA and the United States have sustained a similar
pace of job growth over the past two years.
Employment Trends
Year New York MSA Change
United
States Change New York MSA United States
2006 8,720,300 136,453,000 4.5%4.6%
2007 8,836,500 1.3%137,999,000 1.1%4.4%4.6%
2008 8,861,600 0.3%137,242,000 -0.5%5.3%5.8%
2009 8,571,000 -3.3%131,313,000 -4.3%8.6%9.3%
2010 8,563,100 -0.1%130,361,000 -0.7%8.9%9.6%
2011 8,675,900 1.3%131,932,000 1.2%8.6%9.0%
2012 8,808,200 1.5%134,175,000 1.7%8.7%8.1%
2013 8,958,500 1.7%136,381,000 1.6%7.9%7.4%
2014 9,142,300 2.1%138,958,000 1.9%6.4%6.2%
2015 9,337,200 2.1%141,865,000 2.1%5.3%5.3%
Overall Change 2006-2015 616,900 7.1%5,412,000 4.0%
Avg Unemp. Rate 2006-2015 6.9%7.0%
Unemployment Rate August 2017 4.8%4.5%
Unemployment Rate (Ann. Avg.)Total Employment (Annual Average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. County employment is from the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), all other areas use the
Current Employment Survey (CES). Unemployment rates use the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data is not seasonally adjusted.
Regional Economic Analysis 7
Rye Brook Senior Living
Employment Sectors
The composition of the New York MSA job market is illustrated in the chart below, paired with that of the United
States. Total employment for the two areas is stratified by eleven major employment sectors, ranked from largest
to smallest based on the percentage of New York MSA jobs in each sector.
The New York MSA has a greater percentage employment than the United States in the following categories:
1. Education, Health Services - which accounts for 26.2% of New York MSA payroll employment compared
to 23.6% for the United States as a whole. This sector includes employment in public and private schools,
colleges, hospitals, and social service agencies.
2. Financial Activities - which accounts for 9.0% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 6.5%
for the United States as a whole. Banking, insurance, and investment firms are included in this sector, as
are real estate owners, managers, and brokers
3. Professional, Business Services - which accounts for 8.9% of New York MSA payroll employment
compared to 6.8% for the United States as a whole. This sector includes legal, accounting, and
engineering firms, as well as management of holding companies.
4. Information - which accounts for 3.0% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 1.9% for the
United States as a whole. Publishing, broadcasting, data processing, telecommunications, and software
publishing are included in this sector.
Employment Sectors - 2017
Source: Esri 2017. Compiled by JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, LLC.
2.0%
1.9%
4.7%
6.2%
10.2%
6.8%
6.5%
9.2%
9.9%
19.0%
23.6%
0.2%
3.0%
3.9%
5.5%
5.8%
8.9%
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
18.9%
26.2%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Natural Resources, Mining
Information
Government
Construction
Manufacturing
Professional, Business Services
Financial Activities
Other Services
Leisure, Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Education, Health Services
New York MSA United States
Regional Economic Analysis 8
Rye Brook Senior Living
The New York MSA is underrepresented in the following categories:
1. Leisure, Hospitality - which accounts for 9.4% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 9.9%
for the United States as a whole. This sector includes employment in hotels, restaurants, recreation
facilities, and arts and cultural institutions.
2. Manufacturing - which accounts for 5.8% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 10.2% for
the United States as a whole. This sector includes all establishments engaged in the manufacturing of
durable and nondurable goods.
3. Construction - which accounts for 5.5% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 6.2% for the
United States as a whole. This sector includes construction of buildings, roads, and utility systems.
4. Government - which accounts for 3.9% of New York MSA payroll employment compared to 4.7% for the
United States as a whole. This sector includes public administration at the federal, state, and county level,
as well as other government positions.
Major Employers
The table below contains major employers in the New York MSA.
Major Employers - New York MSA
Name
Number of
Employees
1 City of New York 148,898
2 New York City Department of Education 119,410
3 Metropolitan Transportation Authority 66,804
4 United States Government 50,700
5 New York City Health and Hospital Corps 36,244
6 JP Morgan Chase & Co 27,157
7 State of New York 25,441
8 Citigroup Inc. 24,809
9 Northshore-LIJ Health System 20,775
10 Mount Sinai Medical Center 18,999
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-citys-biggest-employers-2012-4 Date: 04/10/12
Regional Economic Analysis 9
Rye Brook Senior Living
Gross Domestic Product
Based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the New York MSA is the first largest metropolitan area economy in the
nation.
Economic growth, as measured by annual changes in GDP, has been somewhat lower in the New York MSA than
the United States overall during the past nine years. The New York MSA has expanded at a 1.0% average annual
rate while the United States has grown at a 1.0% rate. As the national economy improves, the New York MSA
continues to underperform the United States. GDP for the New York MSA rose by 1.7% in 2015 while the United
States' grew by 2.4%.
The New York MSA has a per capita GDP of $69,971, which is 40.0% greater than the United States' GDP of
$49,844. This means that the New York MSA industries and employers are adding relatively much more value to
the economy than their peers in the United States.
Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity based on the total value of goods and services
produced in a specific geographic area. The figures in the table above represent inflation adjusted “real” GDP
stated in 2009 dollars.
Gross Domestic Product
[$mil][$mil]
Year New York MSA Change
United
States Change
2006 $1,293,281 $14,593,536
2007 $1,311,379 1.4%$14,798,367 1.4%
2008 $1,273,542 -2.9%$14,718,301 -0.5%
2009 $1,277,702 0.3%$14,320,114 -2.7%
2010 $1,324,206 3.6%$14,628,165 2.2%
2011 $1,327,364 0.2%$14,833,679 1.4%
2012 $1,365,847 2.9%$15,126,279 2.0%
2013 $1,368,563 0.2%$15,317,174 1.3%
2014 $1,388,513 1.5%$15,653,000 2.2%
2015 $1,412,183 1.7%$16,023,115 2.4%
Compound % Chg (2006-2015)1.0%1.0%
GDP Per Capita 2015 $69,971 $49,844
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. The release of state and local GDP data has a longer lag time than
national data. The data represents inflation-adjusted "real" GDP stated in 2009 dollars.
Regional Economic Analysis 10
Rye Brook Senior Living
Household Income
The New York MSA has a much higher level of household income than the United States. Median household
income for the New York MSA is $67,326, which is 24.3% higher than the United States.
The following chart shows the distribution of households across nine income levels.
The New York MSA has a smaller concentration of households in the lower income levels than the United States.
Specifically, 28% of the New York MSA households are below the $35,000 level in household income as compared
to 33% of United States households. A greater concentration of households exists in the higher income levels, as
46% of the New York MSA households are at the $75,000 or greater levels in household income versus 36% of
United States households.
Median Household Income - 2017
Median
New York MSA $67,326
United States $54,149
Comparison of New York MSA to United States 24.3%
Source: Esri 2017. Compiled by JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, LLC.
Household Income Distribution - 2017
Source: Esri 2017. Compiled by JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, LLC.
11.7%
8.2%
8.0%
10.6%
15.2%
11.7%
16.1%
8.2%
10.4%
12.5%
10.1%
10.1%
13.3%
17.7%
12.3%
13.4%
5.3%
5.4%
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%
Less than $15,000
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000 or greater
New York MSA United States
Regional Economic Analysis 11
Rye Brook Senior Living
Education and Age
Residents of the New York MSA have a higher level of educational attainment than those in the United States. An
estimated 38% of the New York MSA residents are college graduates with four-year degrees or higher, while
United States residents have an estimated 30% with at least a four-year degree. People in the New York MSA are
similar in age to their peers in the United States. The median age of both the New York MSA and the United States
is 38 years.
Conclusion
The New York MSA's economy will benefit from a growing population base, and higher income and education
levels. The New York MSA saw an increase in the number of jobs in the past 10 years and has maintained a lower
unemployment than the United States during the past decade. Furthermore, the New York MSA is well-positioned
from being the first most populous metropolitan area in the country and having a higher level of GDP per capita
than the United States overall. We project that the New York MSA’s economy will improve and employment will
grow, strengthening the demand for real estate overall.
Education & Age - 2017
Source: Esri 2017. Compiled by JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, LLC.
30%
38%
0%20%40%60%80%
United States
New York MSA
Percent College Graduates
38
38
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
United States
New York MSA
Median Age
Market Area Description and Analysis 12
Rye Brook Senior Living
Market Area Description and Analysis
Delineation of Primary Market Area
The Primary Market Area (PMA) for any form of rental real estate property is defined as the area from which a
majority of the project’s tenants will be drawn. According to various industry sources, the PMA of a seniors housing
care facility is determined by the density of the population, the proximity of competing properties, and the ease of
transit in the surrounding area. The PMA for urban facilities is generally from 5 to 10 miles, for suburban facilities 5
to 20 miles, and for small town and rural facilities 20 to 30 miles1 as indicated in the following data.
Distances that Residents Relocated from
Distance Assisted Living
Assisted &
Independent
Living CCRC
Less than 5 miles 40.00% 43.50% 52.20%
5 to 10 miles 20.40% 20.00% 16.40%
11 to 25 miles 20.00% 15.30% 13.40%
25 to 50 miles 7.30% 5.90% 6.00%
More than 50 miles 12.40% 15.30% 11.90%
A number of factors tend to define a market area. One important factor is density. In rural areas, it may be many
miles between towns large enough to sustain services, and residents are accustomed to driving significant
distances to access services. Conversely, in urban or suburban areas, a resident may have a choice of competing
services within a short drive of his or her home and will normally select the more proximal service provider or the
service provider more convenient to access. Physical barriers can also shape market areas. Rivers, lakes,
streams, military bases, and major highways are all examples of barriers that can constrain market areas. Barriers
can also be psychological. For example, it is common for persons who live on one side of a highway to seldom
access services in a similar area on the opposite side of the same highway, even though access is not
constrained. Likewise, persons living in a given town or county are often reluctant to access services in an adjacent
town or county. The location of competing facilities is also a factor to consider. In market areas served by a greater
number of competing facilities, the primary drawing area for each facility tends to be smaller since residents of the
market area tend to access the service provider nearest their location. Each of these factors is considered in the
delineation of the subject’s PMA.
1. Assisted Living Manual (Published by Assisted Living Federation of America) and Integrated Senior Care: Assisted Living and Long Term Care Manual (Published by Thompson Publishing Group). These radii are also supported by the criteria used by many national developers of seniors housing.
Market Area Description and Analysis 13
Rye Brook Senior Living
Physical Barriers
Long Island South serves as a physical barrier liming the subject property’s market to the east. There are no other
physical barriers significantly impacting the potential market area.
Psychological Barriers
The market area is not considered to be constrained by any known psychological barriers. Furthermore, although
the subject property is located near the Connecticut state line, our surveys indicate
Location of Competing Facilities
There are several competing facilities scattered throughout the area, indicating that seniors have a variety of
facilities from which to choose. This tends to limit the size of market areas, as it is not necessary for seniors or
adult children decision makers to travel far from the home to find suitable seniors housing.
Market Area Delineation Conclusion
Considering population density, commuting patterns (drive times), physical and psychological barriers, and the
concentration of competing facilities’ located throughout the area, we have concluded the appropriate primary
market area (PMA) to be the area constrained by the following zip codes: 10504, 06831, 06830, 105773, 10580,
10528, 10543, 10804, 10709, 10583, 10605, 10606, 10601, 10607, 10523, 10603, 10604, and 10577. In this
market, we believe that the majority of demand will come from the PMA. No measurable draw from a secondary
market area is forecast.
Market Area Description and Analysis 14
Rye Brook Senior Living
Primary Market Area (PMA)
Rye Brook Senior Living
Market Area Description and Analysis 15
Rye Brook Senior Living
10 and 15-Minute Drive Times
Rye Brook Senior Living
Market Area Description and Analysis 16
Rye Brook Senior Living
Market Area Attributes and Character
The subject development is located in the village of Rye Brook. Rye Brook is located in southeastern Westchester
County and shares its eastern border with Greenwich, Connecticut. The village was an unincorporated section of
the town of Rye until its incorporation as a village in July 1982. The town of Rye lies north of the Long Island
Sound and borders Connecticut as the gateway to New England. With convenient commuting distance from New
York and the metropolitan area, Rye is a popular bedroom community with a good school district and nearby shops
and services.
Two retail malls are located in the area. The Galleria at
White Plains is an indoor shopping mall anchored by
Macy’s and Sear’s. With over 130 retailers, the mall
includes retailers like H&M, Forever 21, Aldo, American
Eagle and Victoria’s Secret. Less than a mile away, The
Westchester provides a world-class setting. With stores
such as Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, Crate & Barrel,
Tiffany, Burberry, Rebecca Taylor and both Microsoft and
Apple, it is the shoppers destination for the Metropolitan
New York Region. All 150 stores are just minutes from the
communities of Chappaqua, Scarsdale, Bedford,
Greenwich, and Rye.
The area is served by several institutes of higher education. State University of New York at Purchase also known
at Purchase College is a public four-year college. It offers majors from three schools: the School for Liberal Arts
and Sciences, the School of the Arts, and the School of Liberal Studies & Continuing Education. The School of
Liberal Studies & Continuing Education offers noncredit personal enrichment courses that are open to the general
public and allow participants to explore personal interests. New York Medical College NYMC offers advanced
degrees through its three schools: the School of Medicine, the Graduate School of Basic Medical Sciences, and
the School of Health Sciences and Practice. Total enrollment is 1,660 students in addition to 800 residents and
clinical fellows. NYMC employs 1,350 full-time faculty members and 1,450 part-time and voluntary faculty.
Westchester County Airport is a county-owned airport in Westchester County three miles northeast of the central
business district of White Plains, in the towns of Harrison, North Castle and Rye. It serves suburban Westchester
County, New York and Fairfield County, Connecticut (the New York-Connecticut state border coincides with the
airport's eastern limits). It also serves the New York
metropolitan area, as it is about 33 miles north of
Midtown Manhattan. The Westchester County Airport
is currently served by five commercial airlines.
Due to its proximity to New York City, many Fortune
500 companies are headquartered in Westchester
County including MasterCard, PepsiCo, IBM, ITT,
Jarden, and Universal American. In April 2017, county
officials unveiled plans for an 80-acre, 3 million
square-foot biotechnology hub to be built with $1.2
billion in private investment on vacant land adjacent
to Westchester Medical Center in Valhalla. Called the
Westchester BioScience and Technology Center, the
new development is expected to create 12,000 new jobs.
Market Area Description and Analysis 17
Rye Brook Senior Living
Composition
The predominant land use in the market area is single-family residential. The estimated land use composition is
shown in the following table:
10%Schools, Churches, Public Buildings, Rec. Areas
Multi-Family 15%
Estimated Land Use Composition
Property Type % Used For Type
Single-Family Residential 40%
10%
5%
100%
Retail & Personal Service
Office
Industrial
Vacant Land 15%
Total
5%
Social Forces
An analysis of the PMA demographics relative to the U.S. will yield insight into the nature of the PMA. All of the
data in this section is obtained from The Nielsen Company.
Population Growth
Population growth figures are shown below:
Area 2000 2010
Annual
% Change
2000-2010 2017
Annual
% Change
2010-2017 2022
Annual
% Change
2017-2022
PMA 281,750 293,415 0.41%305,835 0.59%313,594 0.50%
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 0.93%327,514,334 0.85%341,323,594 0.83%
Source: Esri
Population Growth
Between 2010 and 2017, PMA population growth was less than the national average. The forecasted growth for
the PMA is at a rate less than the nation as a whole.
Market Area Description and Analysis 18
Rye Brook Senior Living
Household Growth
Household growth figures are shown below:
Area 2000 2010
Annual
% Change
2000-2010 2017
Annual
% Change
2010-2017 2022
Annual
% Change
2017-2022
PMA 103,667 106,037 0.23%109,563 0.47%112,109 0.46%
United States 105,480,101 116,716,292 1.02%123,158,887 0.77%128,069,416 0.79%
Household Growth
Source: Esri
Between 2010 and 2017, PMA household growth was less than the national average. The forecasted growth for
the PMA is at a rate less than the nation as a whole.
Income Levels
Pertinent income data are shown below.
United States
$111,200
$56,124
Source: Esri
$173,694
$80,675
PMA
Area 2017 Median Household Income
Income Levels
2017 Average HH Income
Current PMA income levels are higher than the national average.
Housing Market
The Nielsen Company reports the housing market statistics shown below:
Source: Esri
$766,202
United States 55.6%$207,344
PMA 61.0%
2017 Owner Occupied Housing Percent
Housing Market Statistics
Area 2017 Median Housing Value
According to Esri, the median home value is $157,837. However, this figure is considered to be understated as
there are a number of new developments located throughout the area with prices ranging from $300,000 to in
excess of $500,000.
The U.S. housing market continues to improve from the financial crisis in 2008. The next chart indicates the annual
returns of the National, the 10-City Composite, and the 20-City Composite home price indices updated through
March 2017. As of March 2017, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S.
census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.8% annual increase in March 2017 versus
a 5.2% increase in March 2016. The 10-City Composite is up 5.2% compared to March 2016. The 20-City
Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.9%. The National Index is up 38.4% from the post- bubble low in
December 2011.
Market Area Description and Analysis 19
Rye Brook Senior Living
According to the Zillow’s April 2017 Market Report, U.S. home values increased 7.3% over the past year with a
median home value of approximately $198,000. However, the report indicates that there were 7.7 percent fewer
homes on the market in April than a year earlier, which marks the 27th straight month of annual inventory declines.
In the short term, home values are expected to grow 2.6% over the next year through April 2018.
According to Trulia, the median sales
price for this area is $948,750.
• This represents a year-over-
year increase of 20%.
• Average price per square foot
is $343, and the median rent
per month is $4,337.
The housing market in the PMA is
considered to be healthier than
average.
Market Area Description and Analysis 20
Rye Brook Senior Living
Environmental Forces
The area has a gently rolling topography. Vegetation is heavy and includes native trees, shrubs and grasses. A
variety of soil types are present in the area, and most are conducive to development with proper engineering.
Public Services
Street Improvements
The market area benefits from the following road infrastructure:
Interstate Highways
North-South: I-684, I-87, and I-95
East-West: I-287
Other Highways
North-South: US-1, R-15, R-22, R-9A, R-125, R-100
East-West: R-119, R-100C
Major City Streets
North-South: Lake Avenue, White Plains Road, Pleasant Ridge Road, Mamaroneck
Avenue, Ridge Street, and Riversville Road
East-West: Anderson Hill Road, Polly Park Road, Westchester Avenue, Lower Cross
Road, Ridgeway, and Ardsley Road
Overall, accessibility is rated as good.
Police/Fire Protection
Police and fire protection is provided by the village Rye Brook and the Port Chester Fire Department.
Schools
The area is within the Port Chester-Rye Union Free School District and the Blind Brook School District.
The area is served by several institutes of higher
education. Westchester Community College enrolls
nearly 14,000 students and offers three associate
degrees; art, science, and applied science. In addition,
the campus offers 20 certificate programs and a range of
non-credit courses for continuing education of all ages.
State University of New York at Purchase also known at
Purchase College is a public four-year college. It offers
majors from three schools: the School for Liberal Arts and
Sciences, the School of the Arts, and the School of
Liberal Studies & Continuing Education. The School of
Liberal Studies & Continuing Education offers noncredit personal enrichment courses that are open to the general
public and allow participants to explore personal interests. New York Medical College NYMC offers advanced
degrees through its three schools: the School of Medicine, the Graduate School of Basic Medical Sciences, and
the School of Health Sciences and Practice. Total enrollment is 1,660 students in addition to 800 residents and
clinical fellows. NYMC employs 1,350 full-time faculty members and 1,450 part-time and voluntary faculty.
Market Area Description and Analysis 21
Rye Brook Senior Living
Shopping
The area is adequately served by a number of
retailers and restaurants. Two retail malls are
located in the area. The Galleria at White Plains
is an indoor shopping mall anchored by Macy’s
and Sear’s. With over 130 retailers, the mall
includes retailers like H&M, Forever 21, Aldo,
American Eagle and Victoria’s Secret. Less than
a mile away, The Westchester provides a world-
class setting. With stores such as Nordstrom,
Neiman Marcus, Crate & Barrel, Tiffany, Burberry,
Rebecca Taylor and both Microsoft and Apple, it is
the shoppers destination for the Metropolitan New
York Region. All 150 stores are just minutes from
the communities of Chappaqua, Scarsdale,
Bedford, Greenwich, and Rye.
Medical
The full service hospital nearest the subject is
Greenwich Hospital. This facility is located
approximately 2.4 miles east of the subject. It is a
206-bed regional hospital serving Fairfield County,
Connecticut and Westchester County, New York.
It opened in 1903 and has become a progressive
medical center and teaching institution with an
internal medical residency offering a wide range of
medical, surgical, diagnostic and wellness
programs – these include specialty services in
areas such as cancer, cardiology,
cardiopulmonary, pediatrics, orthopedics,
diabetes, sleep center, and gynecology among
others.
In addition, St. Vincent’s Hospital Westchester
offers inpatient and outpatient mental health and
addiction treatment services and is located
approximately 3.6 miles southwest of the subject.
Also, White Plains Hospital is approximately 5
miles west of the subject. It provides services to
Westchester County including, but not limited to,
oncology, orthopedic, cardiology, emergency care,
radiology, wound care, among others.
A map highlighting the locations of the noted
neighborhood amenities is shown on the following
page.
Market Area Description and Analysis 22
Rye Brook Senior Living
Neighborhood Amenities
Rye Brook Senior Living White Plains Hospital
Westchester County Airport
Westchester
Mall
Greenwich Hospital
Galleria at White Plains
Purchase College
New York Medical College
Westchester Community College
Market Area Description and Analysis 23
Rye Brook Senior Living
Seniors Housing Market Demographics
Demographics relevant to the seniors housing market are as follows:
PMA USA
305,835 327,514,334
313,594 341,323,594
0.50%0.83%
65,489 84,939,888
85,166 83,911,001
5.39%-0.24%
21.41%25.93%
54,212 51,112,814
61,213 60,125,156
2.46%3.30%
17.73%15.61%
25,341 21,089,231
28,181 24,983,884
2.15%3.45%
8.29%6.44%
9,015 6,547,891
9,225 6,857,035
0.46%0.93%
2.95%2.00%
$111,200 $56,124
$139,009 $63,001
$102,911 $50,681
$59,652 $32,417
85 Plus Population
2017 Population 85+
Forecasted 2022 Population 85+
Forecasted Annual Growth, 2017-2022
2017 Age 85+ Pop. as % of Total Pop.
Source: Esri
Income Levels
Median Income Level Age 65 to 74
Median Income Level Age 75+
Median Household Income, All Ages
Median Income Level Age 55 to 64
Market Area Characteristics
Item
Total Population
2017 Population
Forecasted Annual Growth, 2017-2022
Forecasted 2022 Population
Adult Child (45-64) Population
75 Plus Population
65 Plus Population
2017 Age 75+ Pop. as % of Total Pop.
Forecasted Annual Growth, 2017-2022
2017 Population 75+
Forecasted 2022 Population 75+
Forecasted Annual Growth, 2017-2022
2017 Population 65+
Forecasted 2022 Population 65+
2017 Population 45-64
2017 Age 65+ Pop. as % of Total Pop.
Forecasted 2022 Population 45-64
Forecasted Annual Growth, 2017-2022
2017 Age 45-64 Pop. as % of Total Pop.
Market Area Description and Analysis 24
Rye Brook Senior Living
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Total 45-64 65+75+85+
Fo
r
e
c
a
s
t
A
n
n
u
a
l
G
r
o
w
t
h
Cohort
Comparison of Growth Rate Forecasts
PMA
USA
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
45-64 65+75+85+
%
o
f
T
o
t
a
l
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
Cohort
Comparison of Population Composition
PMA
USA
Overall population growth is forecast to be less than average in the PMA. Growth of persons in the “adult child” age
bracket (45 to 64) is forecast to be greater than average, while the percent of total population that is within the 45
to 64 age group is less than average. The percent of total population that is 65+ is greater than average.
Forecasted growth for the 65+ cohort is less than average. The percent of total population that is 75+ is greater
than average. Forecasted growth for the 75+ cohort is less than average. Lastly, the 85+ population is forecast to
grow at a pace less than the national average, while representing a greater than average percent of the total
population base of the PMA. Senior income levels are above average.
Market Area Description and Analysis 25
Rye Brook Senior Living
Conclusion
Considering population density, commuting patterns (drive times), physical and psychological barriers, and the
concentration of competing facilities’ located throughout the area, we have concluded the appropriate primary
market area (PMA) to be the area constrained by the following zip codes: 10504, 06831, 06830, 105773, 10580,
10528, 10543, 10804, 10709, 10583, 10605, 10606, 10601, 10607, 10523, 10603, 10604, and 10577. In this
market, we believe that the majority of demand will come from the PMA. No measurable draw from a secondary
market area is forecast.
The PMA, which is supported by 10 and 15-minute drive times, encompasses all and/or parts of Rye Brook, Port
Chester, Harrison, Purchase, Armonk, Scarsdale, Rye, Valhalla, Elmsford, Eastchester, Mamaroneck, and White
Plains in New York, as well as Greenwich, Connecticut. The primary land use in the area is single-family
residential and the area is approximately 85% developed. The PMA is expected to experience slightly below
average population growth. The slow growth rate is attributable to the nearly fully built out nature of the area. It
has above average income levels. The area is considered to be in a stage of growth. Between 2017 and 2021,
the market area is forecast to experience growth in demand for seniors housing, but at a below average rate
relative to the nation as a whole. Housing values in the PMA are above average.
Site Description and Analysis 26
Rye Brook Senior Living
Site Description and Analysis
The development site, which consists of 17.8 acres, is located at 900 King Street in the village of Rye Brook,
Westchester County, New York. Currently, a vacant two and three-story office building sits on the site. The office
building with a gross building area of 201,467 square feet was built in 1981 and renovated in 2005. As proposed,
the office building will be demolished and a senior housing community with 160 independent living units and 85
assisted living (including memory care) units will be constructed. In addition, the developer will construct 12 free-
standing independent living duplexes (24 cottages) west of the building. Note, the photographs are from the
previous inspection date of June 16, 2016. An inspection of the site was not part of the scope of work of this
assignment.
Photographs of the Site
Front View from Arbor Drive
Street View on Arbor Drive Looking Northeast
Street View on Arbor Drive Looking Southwest
Intersection of Arbor Drive and King Street Looking
Northwest into King Street
Site Description and Analysis 27
Rye Brook Senior Living
Intersection of Arbor Drive and King Street Looking
Southeast into King Street
Side View
Entrance of Access to Offices
Open Area within Building
Lounge Area
Typical Administrative Office
Site Description and Analysis 28
Rye Brook Senior Living
Vacant Conference Room
Coffee Bar Open Area
Commercial Kitchen
Dining Room
Conference Room
Meeting Room
Site Description and Analysis 29
Rye Brook Senior Living
Reception Area
Vacant Conference Room
Vacant Open Office Space Conference Room
Vacant Open Office Space
Atrium Area
Site Description and Analysis 30
Rye Brook Senior Living
Vacant Open Area Typical Vacant Office Unit
Typical Staff Break Room
Typical Office Space
Lobby/Reception Area
Typical Occupied Office Unit
Site Description and Analysis 31
Rye Brook Senior Living
Typical Common Area Restroom
Covered Parking
Site Description and Analysis 32
Rye Brook Senior Living
Site Plan
Site Description and Analysis 33
Rye Brook Senior Living
Site Details
Specific site details are as follows:
Street Address:900 King Street
Additional Frontage To:None
Site Orientation: Interior Site
Nearest Cross-Street:Arbor Drive and King Street
Primary Access Via: Arbor Drive, a lightly traveled roadway with one lane extending in each
direction. Arbor Drive is not median divided. There is a traffic light that
facilitates access to the site.
Secondary Access Via:None
Accessibility Rating:Average
Visibility Rating:Average
Site Size:17.767 acres
Shape:Irregular
Topography:Mostly level
Vegetation Heavy
Excess Land Area:None
Zone:Zone X
Panel Number:36119C0291F, effective September 28, 2007
Flood Insurance:No
Electricity:Public to site
Natural Gas:Public to site
Water:Public to site
Sewage Treatment:Public to site
Telephone:Public to site
Phase 1 ESA:Not provided
Known Hazards:None observed or known
Earthquake Zone:Not within earthquake zone
Utility Availability -
Environmental -
Location -
Accessibility and Visibility -
Physical Characteristics -
Flood Zone Information -
Site Description and Analysis 34
Rye Brook Senior Living
Aerial Photograph (Source: Bing)
North:Police and fire departments and single-family residential
East:Hutchinson River Parkway, then school and vacant land
South:Arbor Drive, then school and multi-family
West:Arbor Drive, then park
Nuisances or Hazards:None known
Access Easements:None known
Encroachments:None known
Utility Easements:Typical for improved properties to allow for the installation and
maintenance of utility lines
Other Restrictions:None known
Adjacent Properties -
Easements and Other Legal Constraints -
Subject
Site
Site Description and Analysis 35
Rye Brook Senior Living
Conclusion
The subject development sites will be located at 900 King Street in the village of Rye Brook, Westchester County,
New York. More specifically, the site consists of 17.8 acres with a vacant two and three-story building sits. As
proposed, the building will be demolished and a senior housing community with 160 independent living units and
85 assisted living (including a 30-bed memory care) units will be constructed. In addition, the developer will
construct 12 free-standing independent living duplexes (24 cottages) west of the building. The shape of the site is
irregular, and the topography is mostly level. Overall, the site is considered to have good functional utility. It is
physically suited for a wide range of uses and is well suited for the proposed use as a seniors housing community.
Improvement Description and Analysis 36
Rye Brook Senior Living
Improvement Description and Analysis
Introduction
Preliminary plans are for the subject, Rye Brook Senior Living, are to consist primarily of independent living, but
also including a complementary assisted living/memory care component. The estimated unit count is 160
independent living units, 12 independent living duplexes (24 cottages), and 85 assisted living (including a 30-bed
memory care component. The scope of this engagement includes recommendations specific to unit/bed mix and
floor plan sizes.
The following definitions of the Seniors Housing Classifications were jointly developed by the American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) and the National
Investment Center (NIC).
Active Adult Community: For-sale single-family homes, townhomes, cluster homes, and condominiums with no specialized services, restricted to adults at least 55 years of age or older. Rental housing is not included in this category. Residents generally lead an
independent lifestyle; the facilities are not equipped to provide increased care as the individual ages. It may include amenities such as
clubhouse, golf course and recreational spaces. Outdoor maintenance is normally included in the monthly homeowner’s association or
condominium fee.
Senior Apartment Community: Multifamily residential rental properties restricted to adults at least 55 years of age or older. These properties do not have central kitchen facilities and generally do not provide meals to residents but may offer community rooms, social activities, and other amenities.
Independent Living Facility (ILF): Age-restricted multifamily rental properties with central dining facilities. ILFs provide residents, as part
of their monthly fee, access to meals and other services such as housekeeping, linen service, transportation, and social and recreational
activities. Such properties do not provide, in a majority of the units, assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs) such as supervision of medication, bathing, dressing, or toileting. There are no licensed skilled nursing beds in the facility.
Assisted Living Facility (ALF): State regulated rental properties that provide the same services as independent living communities listed
above. ALFs also provide, in a majority of the units, supportive care from trained employees to residents who are unable to live
independently and require assistance with ADLs, including management of medications, bathing, dressing, toileting, ambulating, and
eating. These properties may have some skilled nursing beds, but the majority of units are licensed for assisted living. Many of these
properties include wings or floors dedicated to residents in need of memory care. A property that specializes in the care of residents with memory care issues should be considered an assisted living facility.
Independent and Assisted Living Facility (IALF): Single communities offering both independent and assisted living services within the
same building or on the same campus.
Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs): Age-restricted properties that include a combination of independent living,
assisted living and skilled nursing services (or independent living and skilled nursing) available to residents all on one campus. Resident
payment plans vary and include entrance fee, condo/co-op and rental programs. The majority of the units are not licensed skilled nursing beds.
Improvement Description and Analysis 37
Rye Brook Senior Living
Preliminary Unit Mix
The preliminary unit mix for the proposed subject is shown in the table.
350,000
211,750
Plus Common Areas 38.9%136,250
Totals
Total Gross Building Area
60.5%239 -249
500 30
Independent Living 2,000Two Bedroom Cottage
900
250
450Memory Care
Memory CareSemi-Private
Private
Two Bedroom
20Studio
Assisted Living
Assisted Living
One Bedroom
Two Bedroom
Three Bedroom
Studio
One Bedroom
Independent Living
Assisted Living
1
1
1
1
80
30
101,500 10
5
500
2
350
24
10
24 1
5 2
20 1
15,0004.3%
15 1 15
30
10 4,5001.3%
5,250
15,0004.3%
1.5%
20
Recommended Unit Mix and Building Areas
Care Type
Independent Living
Number of
Beds
Number of
Beds Per Unit
1
850
1,150
Percent of
Total GBA
68,000
9.9%
19.4%
2.9%
34,500
Unit Type
Number of
Units
20
80
30
Square Feet
Total Square
Feet
Independent Living
Independent Living
10,000
0.7%
2.6%
13.7%
9,000
48,000
2,500
Building Area
According to the State of Seniors Housing 2017, median common area percentages for congregate care
communities are as follows.
Considering the anticipated mix consisting primarily of independent living and a complementary assisted
living/memory care component, we conclude a median common area percentage of between 30% and 35% to be
appropriate for the subject development.
Median Common Area Percentages
% of Total
32.0%
Independent /Assisted Living 32.9%
Independent Living Weighted Average
37.4%
Assisted Living 45.4%
Assisted Living with Alzheimer's Care 46.8%
Independent/Assisted Living/Alzheimer's Care
CCRCs 24.1%
Source: State of Seniors Housing 2017
Improvement Description and Analysis 38
Rye Brook Senior Living
Functional Utility
The subject’s functional utility as recommended is as follows:
Median Number of Units/Beds
(114 units for IL ; 167 units for IALF; 149 units for IALF/ALZ; 64 units for AL; 90 units for AL/ALZ; and 296 units for CCRC)
Median Common Area Percentage
(32.0% for IL; 32.9% for IALF; 37.4% for IALF/ALZ; 45.4% for AL; 46.8% for AL/ALZ; and 24.1% for CCRC)
Unit Layout Good
Common Area Layout Good
Overall Functional Utility Good
Medians from State of Seniors Housing 2017
Average
Functional Utility
Larger than Typical
Overall, the project will be inline with other recently constructed communities throughout the country and in turn will
have good functional utility.
Conclusion
Preliminary plans are for the subject, Rye Brook Senior Living, to consist primarily with independent living, but also
including a complementary assisted living/memory care component. Based on the prevailing market trends as well
as current supply and demand conditions, the proposed mix consisting of 160 independent living units, 24
independent living cottages, and 86 assisted living beds (including a memory care component) is deemed
reasonable. We have estimated 30 memory care beds. A competitive amenities package is recommended for the
subject development in order to competitively position it with the existing inventory as well as anticipated pipeline
additions.
Legal Constraints Analysis 39
Rye Brook Senior Living
Legal Constraints Analysis
Zoning
According to the Building Department for the Village of Rye Brook, the subject site is currently zoned PUD,
Planned Unit Development (914-939-0668).
The subject is currently zoned as Planned Unit Development, which is permitted on a minimum of 30 contiguous
acres. The PUD will allow a senior living facilities, excluding nursing homes, townhouses apartments and limited
commercial, retail and institutional uses, plus related accessory uses.
Senior living facilities, excluding nursing homes, providing for a range of living accommodations, personal care
services and support facilities for people who are 62 years of age or older or for couples, one of whom is at least
62 years of age. No senior living facility shall exceed 35 feet in height calculated by utilizing the weighted average
of the building height measured from finished grade adjacent to the exterior walls of the building and provided that
such building is at least 200 feet from a state road. The maximum density for senior living facilities shall be
calculated as per the requirements of § 250-7E(2)(d)[1]. Some accessory uses shall be permitted in a senior living
facility.
Parking requirement for senior living facilities shall be a minimum of 0.75 per unit.
Note that the Village of Rye Brook has a code for senior citizen housing development with a special permit to be
approved by the Board of Trustees to encourage the development of additional housing options for senior citizens.
Deed Restrictions
We have assumed that the subject is not affected by any adverse deed restrictions. However, this is a legal matter,
and an attorney should be consulted for verification of this assumption.
Legal Constraints Analysis 40
Rye Brook Senior Living
Licensing Requirements
Assisted living is subject to some level of regulation in every state in the nation. The following summarizes the
regulations in the state of New York.
New York's Department of Health licenses three types of adult care facilities that offer different levels of
supervision and personal care to five or more adults who have functional and/or cognitive impairments: adult
homes (lowest level of care),103 enriched housing programs, and assisted living residences (ALRs) (highest level
of care).104 Licensed adult homes and enriched housing programs have similar provisions except that enriched
housing programs require private resident units and do not have to offer more than one meal per day.
Both settings form the foundation of the state's Assisted Living Residence Program. When residents reach a level
of frailty that can no longer be addressed through the care and services of an enriched housing program or an
adult home, an operator may apply for certification to provide a higher level of care as an ALR;105 operators may
also be certified as special needs assisted living to provide dementia care, or as enhanced assisted living to
support aging in place.
Adult homes and enriched housing programs may be licensed by the Department of Health to participate in the
assisted living program (ALP) for Medicaid clients, which has additional requirements for admission and retention,
staffing, and resident services.
Adult Foster Care. The Department of Social Services, Office of Children and Family Services, licenses another
type of adult care facility called family-type homes for adults that provide long-term residential care, room, board,
housekeeping, supervision and/or personal care to four or fewer adults unrelated to the operator. The Division of
Adult Protective Services monitors these homes. Regulatory provisions for family-type homes for adults are not
included in this profile but a link to the provisions can found at the end.
This profile includes summaries of selected regulatory provisions for adult homes, enriched housing programs, and
ALRs. The complete regulations are online at the links provided at the end.
The subject will have an ALR license.
Potential Changes in the Regulatory Environment
We are aware of no pending changes in the regulatory environment in the state of New York that would negatively
impact the subject.
Conclusion
The subject is zoned as Planned Unit Development, we are assuming that the proposed use will be allowed and/or
the site will be rezoned. Furthermore, the subject will need to be licensed by the state of New York as an assisted
living residence. We are aware of no pending changes in the regulatory environment in the state of New York that
would negatively impact the subject.
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 41
Rye Brook Senior Living
Seniors Housing Market Analysis
Aging Trends
There is no denying that the demographic trends impacting the seniors housing sector are positive. As of the 2010
Census, there were 40.3 million elderly Americans (those aged 65 and older), making up nearly 13% of the total
population. The elderly population is expected to almost double by the year 2030 to 72 million, to make up 19% of
the total population. The 2010 Census also indicated that there were 5.5 million Americans aged 85 and older,
almost 2% of the total population. This population is expected to almost double by 2030 and become 2.3% of the
total population. In 2050, as many as one in five Americans could be elderly.
Much of the forecast growth will occur between 2010 and 2030, due to the Baby Boomer generation entering their
elderly years. This is most apparent when comparing growth rates. Between 2010 and 2030, the overall U.S.
population is forecast to grow at an annual pace of 0.9% per year. Remarkably, growth in all three seniors sectors
is much stronger: 3.0% per year for the 65+ population, 2.9% per year for the 75+ population, and 2.1% per year
for the 85+ population. These strong rates of growth will lead to growing demand for seniors housing.
Forecast Population Growth
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Po
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
(
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)
85+ 75 to 84
65 to 74
45 to 64
20 to 44 Under 20
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 42
Rye Brook Senior Living
Other Factors Leading to Increased Demand
In addition to demographic trends, the following factors are leading to increasing demand for seniors housing and
long-term care:
• Need for assistance with ADLs. According to census figures, about 6.5 million seniors need assistance
with ADLs. As the number of seniors continues to increase, that number is expected to double by 2020.
• More elderly living alone. Women continue to outlive men, and the likelihood that either men or women
will live alone increases with age. Societal factors, such as rising divorce rates and the growing numbers
of people choosing not to marry, also contribute to this trend.
• Changes in the role of women. Women have traditionally been the primary caregivers of older people.
However, the number of women in the work force grew from 20.5% in 1915 to more than 58% in 2010.
With this change, fewer women are serving as caregivers, creating the need for the elderly to seek
assistance outside the home.
Elderly Population - Percent of Total
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
65+
75+
85+
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 43
Rye Brook Senior Living
National Senior Housing Supply Trends
Senior apartments and independent living supply is typically expressed in terms of units, while assisted and
nursing supply is expressed in terms of beds. NIC MAP estimated there were 12,544 seniors housing properties
consisting of 1,778,018 units/beds in the primary and secondary markets of the U.S. as of the 2nd quarter 2017, as
shown below.
1,371
4,278
671
6,224
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Majority
Independent
Living
Majority Assisted
Living
Majority
Memory Care
Majority Nursing
Care
Pr
o
p
e
r
t
i
e
s
Seniors Housing Supply
401,459 368,297
114,710
893,552
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Majority
Independent
Living
Majority
Assisted Living
Majority
Memory Care
Majority
Nursing
Care
Un
i
t
s
/
B
e
d
s
Seniors Housing Supply
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 44
Rye Brook Senior Living
New Development
According to NIC Map Construction Monitor for the 2nd quarter of 2017, national construction start activity (not
including senior apartments) was as follows.
There were 534 seniors housing properties under construction as of the 2nd quarter of 2017. The majority of the
construction was within new properties, with construction in these properties totaling 45,381 units spread across
377 properties. In addition, there were also 157 existing properties undergoing expansions, totaling 9,093 units.
24,000
18,000 18,000
15,000
21,000
14,603 14,942
19,765
23,469
33,743
30,539
45,713
43,408
54,474
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Un
i
t
s
Construction Start Activity
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 45
Rye Brook Senior Living
National Demand Trends
As noted previously, demographic trends will lead to growing demand for seniors housing over the coming years.
Most industry analysts agree that the level of assisted and independent living units that are supportable is not yet
known. As the public becomes more educated as to seniors housing options, an increasing percentage of seniors
may elect to occupy some form of seniors housing.
To date the most comprehensive estimate of demand for seniors housing was published in The Case for Investing
in Seniors Housing and Long Term Care Properties with Updated Projections. The study, conducted by NIC in
partnership with Price Waterhouse, LLP, produced the following base case estimates of effective demand for
seniors housing.
Revised Base Case Demand (Including Public Pay
Demand for Assisted and Nursing)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Independent Living Assisted Living Skilled Nursing
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 46
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Property Size
Seniors Housing
Seniors housing refers to independent living and assisted living communities. Independent living communities are
typically larger than assisted living or nursing care facilities with a median of 125 units. Many operators believe that
a minimum size of about 80 units is required to operate profitably, but many communities are substantially larger.
Assisted living communities are typically smaller than independent living communities with a median of 61 units for
assisted living and 92 units for assisted/memory care. Many operators believe that a minimum size of about 60
units is required to operate profitably, but there are some smaller models that have proven to be successful.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016 ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 47
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Building Composition
Seniors Housing
Independent living communities normally have a higher ratio of rentable area to total area than assisted living or
nursing care facilities. This is partially due to the larger size of living units, and partially due to lower common area
requirements for uses such as therapy and common area bathing facilities. Assisted living communities normally
have a lower ratio of rentable area to total area than independent living facilities. This is partially due to the smaller
size of living units; however, assisted living facilities usually have a larger common area, in proportion to the total
area of the building, than independent living facilities.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016, ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 48
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Community Age
Seniors Housing
The majority of independent living communities now in existence were developed since 2000. Another large share
of the total was developed in the 1980s. This is in contrast to nursing care, which has experienced relatively
constant development for a number of decades, and assisted living, most of which was developed in the 1990s.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016, ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 49
Rye Brook Senior Living
Occupancy
The table on the following page shows the occupancy performance by region compared to a year ago from the
National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC).
2Q16 2Q17 2Q16 2Q17 2Q16 2Q17 2Q16 2Q17 2Q16 2Q17
Independent Living1 89.6%88.6%90.7%90.2%3.0%3.1%2.5%4.1%2.4%2.9%
East North Central 89.1%88.2%90.3%90.0%2.8%3.8%2.8%3.5%2.2%2.5%
Mid-Atlantic 91.2%90.2%91.8%91.2%3.1%3.3%1.8%3.4%1.6%2.2%
Mountain 87.1%86.1%88.1%88.7%3.3%2.6%3.1%5.6%2.2%4.4%
Northeast 90.8%90.6%91.7%91.5%3.5%2.5%1.4%2.5%1.3%2.3%
Pacific 91.4%90.4%92.0%91.1%3.3%4.2%1.0%2.5%1.6%1.4%
Southeast 88.8%87.6%90.2%89.5%2.8%2.5%3.8%5.5%4.0%4.2%
Southwest 86.3%84.0%88.1%87.3%2.3%2.2%4.3%8.1%4.3%5.2%
West North Central 89.9%88.7%91.5%90.8%2.6%3.1%4.4%4.9%3.3%3.4%
Assisted Living1 91.1%90.6%91.5%91.4%3.3%3.2%1.4%2.5%1.4%1.9%
East North Central 90.5%90.7%91.0%91.1%3.0%4.5%1.0%1.0%0.9%1.3%
Mid-Atlantic 93.0%92.8%93.5%93.2%3.2%3.4%1.6%2.4%2.0%2.2%
Mountain 88.1%88.7%88.5%89.6%3.9%2.8%1.2%2.0%0.5%2.7%
Northeast 92.2%92.3%92.4%92.5%4.1%2.3%0.5%1.7%0.2%1.8%
Pacific 92.4%91.6%92.6%91.8%3.4%3.7%0.6%1.4%1.2%0.4%
Southeast 90.7%89.8%91.1%91.1%3.1%3.1%2.1%3.2%3.0%2.2%
Southwest 88.9%85.4%89.3%88.5%2.7%1.6%1.9%8.2%2.6%4.0%
West North Central 91.2%91.3%92.0%91.8%2.4%3.5%3.8%2.0%2.0%2.1%
Nursing Care1 87.8%86.2%89.8%88.7%2.7%3.0%4.1%6.2%3.6%4.2%
East North Central 87.1%84.8%89.4%88.4%2.5%2.6%5.8%7.2%4.2%4.3%
Mid-Atlantic 88.5%86.3%89.3%88.2%3.1%3.1%2.2%5.0%1.0%2.3%
Mountain 85.6%82.5%87.5%87.4%2.1%2.3%6.0%10.8%4.9%6.8%
Northeast 89.3%88.7%91.0%90.2%2.7%2.6%2.4%3.5%2.6%2.8%
Pacific 90.4%89.3%91.4%90.5%3.2%4.7%1.4%3.7%2.0%2.4%
Southeast 86.4%85.1%89.1%87.4%2.4%1.8%6.0%8.4%5.2%6.8%
Southwest 82.5%81.9%86.2%85.4%1.6%3.3%7.9%7.9%6.9%7.1%
West North Central 88.2%85.1%90.7%89.3%2.8%2.4%5.4%9.1%5.3%5.2%
CCRCs1 86.9%86.3%87.1%86.4%2.7%2.7%-0.1%0.0%-0.8%-0.7%
East North Central 83.9%83.5%84.4%83.6%2.5%2.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.5%-0.7%
Mid-Atlantic 89.4%88.6%89.5%88.6%2.7%3.1%-0.8%0.6%-0.9%-0.4%
Mountain 81.1%81.6%82.1%82.2%2.7%2.8%1.2%1.6%-1.1%2.2%
Northeast 91.1%90.6%91.1%90.6%2.9%2.2%-0.2%-0.3%-1.1%-0.8%
Pacific 90.0%89.3%90.0%89.3%2.9%3.6%-0.1%-0.1%-1.0%-0.8%
Southeast 89.2%88.4%89.3%88.5%2.3%2.5%-0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.9%
Southwest 76.9%76.4%77.1%76.7%2.5%2.3%-0.5%0.2%-0.5%-0.4%
West North Central 82.7%81.5%83.0%81.5%2.9%3.1%0.0%-0.5%-1.2%-2.0%
1. Represents aggregate property type data for all markets.
Performance by Region
Current Quarter vs. One Year Ago
Occupancy (%)
Stabilized
Occupancy (%)
Annual Rent
Growth (%)
Annual
Inventory
Growth (%)
Annual
Absorption (%)
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 50
Rye Brook Senior Living
The preceding table represents aggregate property type data collected from the NICMAP 99 markets (primary and
secondary market aggregate), as shown below:
East North Central: Includes Akron, OH; Chicago, IL; Cincinnati, OH; Cleveland, OH; Columbus, OH; Dayton,
OH; Detroit, MI; Grand Rapids, MI; Indianapolis, IN; Madison, WI; Milwaukee, WI; Toledo, OH; and Youngstown,
OH.
Mid-Atlantic: Includes Baltimore, MD; Charleston, SC; Charlotte, NC; Columbia, SC; Greensboro, NC; Greenville,
SC; Louisville, KY; Raleigh, NC; Richmond, VA; Virginia Beach, VA; and Washington, DC.
Mountain: Includes Albuquerque, NM; Boise, ID; Colorado Springs, CO; Denver, CO; Las Vegas, NV; Ogden, UT;
Phoenix, AZ; Salt Lake City, UT; and Tucson, AZ.
Northeast: Includes Albany, NY; Allentown, PA; Boston, MA; Bridgeport, CT; Buffalo, NY; Harrisburg, PA;
Hartford, CT; Lancaster, PA; New Haven, CT; New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; Pittsburgh, PA; Portland, ME;
Providence, RI; Rochester, NY; Scranton, PA; Springfield, MA; Syracuse, NY; and Worcester, MA.
Pacific: Includes Bakersfield, CA; Fresno, CA; Los Angeles, CA; Modesto, CA; Portland, OR; Riverside, CA;
Sacramento, CA; San Diego, CA; San Francisco, CA; San Jose, CA; Seattle, WA; Stockton, CA; and Ventura, CA.
Southeast: Includes Atlanta, GA; Augusta, GA; Birmingham, AL; Chattanooga, TN; Daytona Beach, FL; Fort
Myers, FL; Jackson, MS; Jacksonville, FL; Knoxville, TN; Lakeland, FL; Melbourne, FL; Memphis, TN; Miami, FL;
Nashville, TN; Orlando, FL; Sarasota, FL; and Tampa, FL.
Southwest: Includes Austin, TX; Baton Rouge, LA; Dallas, TX; El Paso, TX; Houston, TX; Little Rock, AR;
McAllen, TX; New Orleans, LA; Oklahoma City, OK; San Antonio, TX; and Tulsa, OK.
West North Central: Includes Des Moines, IA; Kansas City, MO; Minneapolis, MN; Omaha, NE; St. Louis, MO;
and Wichita, KS.
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 51
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Resident Turnover
Seniors Housing
Turnover in independent living is lower than for nursing care or assisted living properties probably because fewer
moves are health necessitated. Turnover data reported in the State of Seniors Housing 2016 is as follows.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016 ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 52
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Rental Rates
Seniors Housing
For rental communities, rents have continued to increase. Annual revenue per unit statistics is shown next.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016, ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 53
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Payment Types
Independent Living
The vast majority of independent living units utilize a rental form of payment. However, 1.7% of the communities
surveyed for the 2016 State of Seniors Housing have an entrance fee structure. For the purposes of the survey,
this sector includes only properties having an entrance fee in excess of $20,000. This type of payment plan,
common for non-profit communities, calls for the payment of an up-front entrance or endowment fee, followed by
monthly maintenance fees payments. Often, the entrance fee is fully or partially refundable.
Source: The State of Seniors Housing 2016, ASHA
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 54
Rye Brook Senior Living
Assisted Living
The vast majority of assisted living units utilize a rental form of payment. Of the assisted living facilities surveyed
for State of Seniors Housing 2016, 99.7% were rental. Many rental communities do charge community or
assessment fees, however, which are generally less than $20,000 and non-refundable.
Assisted living is still a largely private-pay industry. According to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living, which is the
most recent publication available, funding for assisted living comes from the following sources:
Only a small percent of assisted living residents pay for their care through a managed care program or with long
term care insurance. However, the popularity of long term care insurance is growing, as it is now given the same
preferential tax treatment as expenditures on other types of health insurance. The new tax advantages, in
conjunction with a growing awareness of the need for individuals to plan for long term care expenses, have led to
an increased interest and growing market for long term care insurance.
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 55
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Expenses and Profit Margins
Independent Living
Survey responses from The State of Seniors Housing 2016 revealed the following for independent living facilities:
Assisted Living
Survey responses from The State of Seniors Housing 2016 revealed the following for assisted living facilities:
Seniors Housing Market Analysis 56
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Sales Price Trends
Seniors Housing
The following chart displays the average and median price per unit for both independent living and assisted living
over the last 5 years. The average and median price per independent living unit was $228,200 and $202,100 in
2016, while the average and median price per assisted living unit was $193,650 and $156,250 in 2016.
Source: The Senior Care Acquisition Report Twenty-Second Edition 2017, Irving Levin Associates, Inc.
Conclusion
Senior housing operators are optimistic, projecting to see occupancy and rental rate growth in 2017.
Assisted living is considered needs based, and many consumers find the ability to pay for assisted living even in
hard times. Looking forward, with the economy and housing market recovering, demand for assisted living will
increase across the nation. New construction is increasing, especially in markets with lower barriers to entry. There
is some risk of near term overbuilding, which will likely impact older assets in need of updating. Over the longer
term, however, strong increases in demand will occur, leading to continued demand for assisted living assets.
With the national economy and the housing market now in recovery, the independent living market is experiencing
increases in occupancy and rental rates. New construction is increasing, especially in destination markets, as
potential residents are finding it easier to sell current homes. Therefore, there is some risk of near term
overbuilding which will most likely impact older assets in need of updating. However, we anticipate that occupancy
and rental rate increases will continue for several years. Also, the independent living sector was the first sector to
benefit from the baby boom generation, which started turning 65 in 2011.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Assisted Living Average $164,000 $150,600 $188,700 $189,200 $193,650
Independent Living Average $138,800 $191,950 $246,800 $192,900 $228,200
Assisted Living Median $152,200 $150,300 $173,200 $169,000 $156,250
Independent Living Median $138,400 $199,300 $275,900 $208,900 $202,100
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Average and Median Price per Unit: Seniors Housing
Supply and Demand Analysis 57
Rye Brook Senior Living
Supply and Demand Analysis
Introduction
In this section, we will analyze supply and demand conditions.
Metro Market Supply and Demand Conditions
The NIC Map Database provides the following data for the New York MSA, which includes the counties shown in
the following map. It is noted that primary markets represent the average of the 31 largest core-based statistical
areas (CBSAs) within the United States.
New York MSA
Supply and Demand Analysis 58
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An overview of the New York seniors housing market is shown in the following table, comparing the MSA data to
comparable data for the largest CBSAs in the NIC survey.
Trends in the independent living market over time are shown in the following table.
Supply and Demand Analysis 59
Rye Brook Senior Living
Trends in the assisted living market over time are shown in the following table.
The NIC survey divides the market into submarkets by constituent county, as shown in the table(s) below.
For stabilized properties that are mostly independent living in the New York area, the average occupancy rate is
92.2%. In comparison, the average occupancy for primarily assisted living communities is 92.5%. The subject
development will be located in Westchester County. According to the NIC survey, the county-wide average
occupancies for independent living and assisted living facilities are 90.4% and 91.6%. In comparison, the
independent living and assisted living figures for nearby Fairfield County (to the immediate east in Connecticut) are
87.3% and 90.4%, respectively.
Supply and Demand Analysis 60
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Delineation of the Market Area
The subject’s PMA is concluded to be the area within eighteen zip codes surrounding the proposed development
site. The PMA, which is supported by 10 and 15-minute drive times, encompasses all and/or parts of Rye Brook,
Port Chester, Harrison, Purchase, Armonk, Scarsdale, Rye, Valhalla, Elmsford, Eastchester, Mamaroneck, and
White Plains in New York, as well as Greenwich, Connecticut.
Target Market
The subject’s target market group consists of the age qualified population that has adequate income to live in
elderly housing and adult children who are caregivers for an elderly relative. Therefore, the subject’s primary target
market is seniors aged 65+ with household income of $35,000+, as well as adult children who might relocate such
a person to the market.
Assisted Living Supply Analysis
We will now focus upon the assisted living segment of the market. Bed licenses are granted based upon double
occupancy in many rooms. In practice, a lesser number of rooms are typically occupied by more than one person.
For this reason, we will analyze operating beds as opposed to licensed beds. For purposes of this report, a
facility’s operating beds are considered the optimal number of persons that the facility is designed to accommodate
at one time. This figure is generally equal to or greater than the number of units and equal to or less than the
number of licensed beds. Our analysis also disregards small board and care facilities in and around the market
area, although we know such facilities to be present. Board and care facilities generally have less than 25 licensed
beds, are operated by “mom and pop” type operators, and offer accommodations and services of lesser quality.
For consistency, such facilities are also excluded from the penetration rates utilized in the demand analysis.
Existing Supply of Assisted Living
The following table is a list of the assisted living facilities (including memory care) within the PMA shown in the
table. All of the communities are considered to be 100% competitive within the defined PMA boundaries.
NC/MC: Nursing center with specialized memory care beds CCRC: Continuing care retirement community
NC/ALF/MC: Nursing center with assisted living & memory care wing IALF: Independent and assisted living facility
NC/MC/ILF: Nursing center with independent living & memory care wing IALF/MC: Independent and assisted living facility with memory care wing
NC/IL: Nursing center with independent living ILF/MC: Independent living facility with memory care wing
Type Key ALF/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility with memory care wing
NC: Nursing center ALF D/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility, 100% memory care wing
NC/ALF: Nursing center with assisted living ILF: Independent living facility
Total Number of Existing Competitive Beds 621
90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Bristal at Armonk ALF/MC 134 6.0 100%134
9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY
100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY
The Ambassador ALF/MC 115 5.7 100%115
The Kensington White Plains ALF/MC 87 4.8 100%87
78 103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn CCRC 78 4.5 100%
1 Bolling Place, Greenwich, CT
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains IALF/MC 90 3.7 100%90
1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
Merry Go Round - The Mews ALF 86 2.6 100%86
The Greens at Greenwich ALF D/MC 31 2.0 100%31
Number of
Competitive
Beds
Existing Supply of Assisted Living
Property Name Type
Number of
Assisted
Living Beds
Miles From
Subject
Percent Beds
Considered
Competitive
Supply and Demand Analysis 61
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Occupancy of Competitive Supply
The occupancy and waiting list status of the competitive supply of assisted living are as follows:
The Bristal at Armonk 93%No90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Ambassador 91%No9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY
The Kensington White Plains 100%Yes100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 91%Yes305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn 98%No103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
The Greens at Greenwich 87%No1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
Merry Go Round - The Mews 97%No1 Bolling Place, Greenwich, CT
Occupancy of Competitive Assisted Living
Property Name Current Occupancy %Waiting List Status
Based upon the reported occupancy levels, the weighted average occupancy for competitive beds is as follows:
WEIGHTED AVERAGE OCCUPANCY 95%-
TOTALS 590 -558
The Bristal at Armonk 134 93%124 90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Kensington White Plains 87 100%87 100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY
The Ambassador 115 91%105 9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY
The Osborn 78 98%76 103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
Merry Go Round - The Mews 86 97%83 1 Bolling Place, Greenwich, CT
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 90 91%82 305 North Street, White Plains, NY
Weighted Average Occupancy of Competitive Assisted Living
Property Name Number of Competitive Current Occupancy %Number of Occupied
The Greens at Greenwich 31 87%27 1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
The existing inventory indicates occupancies ranging from 87% to 100%, with an overall weighted average
occupancy of the PMA is 95%.
Supply and Demand Analysis 62
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Memory Care Supply Analysis
We will now focus upon the memory care segment of the assisted living market. Alzheimer’s disease is a
progressive, degenerative disease that attacks the brain and results in impaired memory, thinking, and behavior. It
was first described by Dr. Alois Alzheimer in 1906 and has since been diagnosed in millions of people. The exact
causes have yet to be discovered. Memory care is an umbrella term used to describe the loss of cognitive or
intellectual function. Many conditions can cause memory care issues. Issues related to depression, drug
interaction, thyroid, and other problems may be reversible if detected early. Several other diseases also cause
memory care issues, such as Parkinson’s, Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Huntington’s, and Multi-Infarct or vascular disease,
caused by multiple strokes in the brain.
The following statistics from the National Alzheimer’s Association’s 2017 Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures
report delineate the strong need for facilities that care for persons with memory care issues:
• Alzheimer’s is a progressive, degenerative disease of the brain and the most common form of memory
care disease.
• An estimated 5.5 million Americans of all ages have Alzheimer’s dementia in 2017. This figure includes
5.3 million people aged 65 and older and 200,000 individuals under age 65 who have younger-onset
memory care issues.
• One in ten people aged 65 and older (10%) has Alzheimer’s dementia.
• Of those with Alzheimer’s, an estimated 4% are under age 65, 16% are 65 to 74, 44% are 75 to 84, and
38% are 85 and older. It is noted that percentages do not total 100% due to rounding.
• More women than men have memory care issues. Almost two-thirds of all Americans living with
Alzheimer’s are women. Of the 5.3 million people over age 65 with Alzheimer’s in the United States, 3.3
million are women and 2.0 million are men. Based on estimates from ADAMS, 16% of women aged 71
and older have memory care issues compared with 11% of men.
• The number of Americans surviving into their 80s and 90s and beyond is expected to grow dramatically
due to advances in medicine and medical technology, as well as social and environmental conditions.
Additionally, a very large segment of the American population – the baby boom generation – is reaching
retirement age.
• By 2030, the segment of the U.S. population aged 65 years and older is expected to double, and the
estimated 74 million older Americans will make up approximately 20% of the total population (up from
14% in 2012). As the number of older Americans grows rapidly, so too will the numbers of new and
existing cases of memory care issues.
• In 2000, there were an estimated 411,000 new (incident) cases of Alzheimer’s disease. For 2010, that
number was estimated to be 454,000 (a 10% increase); by 2030, it is projected to be 615,000 (35%
increase from 2010); and by 2050, 959,000 (110% increase from 2010).
• By 2025, the number of people aged 65 and older with Alzheimer’s disease is estimated to be over 7.1
million. This is a 35% increase from the 5.3 million aged 65 and older currently affected in 2017.
• By 2050, the number of people aged 65 and older with Alzheimer’s disease may nearly triple, from 5.3
million to a projected 13.8 million, barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent or more
effectively treat the disease.
In the past, most persons with memory care issues have been cared for in the home by informal caregivers
(friends or relatives) or through home health care agencies or other providers. With the continuing increase in two-
income households and the recognition that caring for a person with memory care issues
Supply and Demand Analysis 63
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can be physically and mentally taxing, many informal caregivers are seeking options outside the home. This led to
growth in the number of facilities providing specialized care for persons with memory care issues.
Facilities providing specialized care for persons with memory care issues generally follow one of two models: the
nursing care model or the assisted living model. Generally, the nursing care model can be characterized as being
for patients who have relatively extensive health care needs in addition to requiring care for memory care issues.
The nursing care model is a type of care subject to greater regulation than assisted living care. Staffing
requirements for nursing care are typically greater, and the associated costs for care are higher. As many persons
with memory care issues are otherwise healthy, the assisted living model is the leading model for the care of
persons with memory care issues.
Existing Supply of Memory Care
The existing supply of memory care within the PMA is as follows.
Total Number of Existing Competitive Beds 166
Type Key ALF/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility with memory care wing
NC: Nursing center ALF D/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility, 100% memory care wing
NC/ALF: Nursing center with assisted living ILF: Independent living facility
NC/ALF/MC: Nursing center with assisted living & memory care wing IALF: Independent and assisted living facility
NC/MC/ILF: Nursing center with independent living & memory care wing IALF/MC: Independent and assisted living facility with memory care wing
Existing Supply of Memory Care
Property Name Type
Number of
Memory Care
Beds
Miles From
Subject
Percent Beds
Considered
Competitive
Number of
Competitive
Beds
NC/IL: Nursing center with independent living ILF/MC: Independent living facility with memory care wing
NC/MC: Nursing center with specialized memory care beds CCRC: Continuing care retirement community
90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Bristal at Armonk ALF/MC 36 6.0 100%36
20 9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY
100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY
The Ambassador ALF/MC 20 5.7 100%
The Kensington White Plains ALF/MC 34 4.8 100%34
103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
32 305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn CCRC 13 4.5 100%13
1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains ALF/MC 32 3.5 100%
The Greens at Greenwich ALF D/MC 31 2.0 100%31
Supply and Demand Analysis 64
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Occupancy of Competitive Supply
The occupancy and waiting list status of the competitive supply of memory care is as follows:
9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY No90%The Ambassador
100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY Yes100%The Kensington White Plains
The Bristal at Armonk 89%No90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 88%No305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn 100%Yes103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
Property Name
The Greens at Greenwich 87%No1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
Occupancy of Competitive Memory Care
Current Occupancy %Waiting List Status
Based upon the reported occupancy levels, the weighted average occupancy for competitive beds is as follows:
TOTALS 166 -152
WEIGHTED AVERAGE OCCUPANCY 92%-
The Bristal at Armonk 36 89%32 90 Business Park Drive, Armonk, NY
The Kensington White Plains 34 100%34 100 Maple Avenue, White Plains, NY
The Ambassador 20 90%18 9 Saxon Woods Rd, Scarsdale, NY
The Osborn 13 100%13 103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
The Greens at Greenwich 31 87%27 1155 King Street, Greenwich, CT
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 32 88%28 305 North Street, White Plains, NY
Property Name
Weighted Average Occupancy of Competitive Memory Care
Number of Competitive Current Occupancy %Number of Occupied
The existing inventory indicates occupancies ranging from 87% to 100%, with an overall weighted average
occupancy of the PMA is 92%.
Supply and Demand Analysis 65
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Independent Living Supply Analysis
We will now focus upon the independent living segment of the market. In this analysis, the focus is upon living
units, which can accommodate one to two persons.
Existing Supply of Independent Living
The following table is a list of independent living facilities serving the market area.
NC/ALF: Nursing center with assisted living ILF: Independent living facility
NC/ALF/MC: Nursing center with assisted living & memory care wing IALF: Independent and assisted living facility
NC/MC/ILF: Nursing center with independent living & memory care wing IALF/MC: Independent and assisted living facility with memory care wing
NC/IL: Nursing center with independent living ILF/MC: Independent living facility with memory care wing
NC/MC: Nursing center with specialized memory care beds CCRC: Continuing care retirement community
Total Number of Existing Competitive Units 548
Type Key ALF/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility with memory care wing
NC: Nursing center ALF D/MC: Free-standing assisted living facility, 100% memory care wing
55 Grasslands Rd, Valhalla, NY
The Knolls CCRC 120 6.1 100%120
103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn CCRC 204 4.5 100%204
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains IALF/MC 58 3.7 100%58
Type
Number of
Independent
Living Units
Miles From
Subject
Percent Units
Considered
Competitive
Number of
Competitive
Units
Existing Supply of Independent Living
Property Name
Atria Rye Brook ILF 166 0.9 100%166 1200 King Street, Rye Brook, NY
Supply and Demand Analysis 66
Rye Brook Senior Living
Occupancy of Competitive Supply
The occupancy and waiting list status of the competitive supply of independent living is as follows:
Occupancy of Competitive Independent Living
Current Occupancy %Waiting List Status
The Knolls 92%No55 Grasslands Rd, Valhalla, NY
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 91%No305 North Street, White Plains, NY
The Osborn 94%No103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
Property Name
Atria Rye Brook 93%No1200 King Street, Rye Brook, NY
Based upon the reported occupancy levels, the weighted average occupancy for competitive units is as follows:
TOTALS 548 -509
WEIGHTED AVERAGE OCCUPANCY 93%-
The Knolls 120 92%110 55 Grasslands Rd, Valhalla, NY
The Osborn 204 94%192 103 Theall Rd, Rye, NY
Atria Rye Brook 166 93%154 1200 King Street, Rye Brook, NY
The Bristal Assisted Living at White Plains 58 91%53 305 North Street, White Plains, NY
Property Name
Weighted Average Occupancy of Competitive Independent Living
Number of Competitive Current Occupancy %Number of Occupied
The existing inventory of independent living indicates occupancies ranging from 91% to 94%, with an overall
average of 93%.
Supply and Demand Analysis 67
Rye Brook Senior Living
Pipeline Supply
Our research revealed there to be several pipeline projects under construction or proposed within or overlapping
with the concluded PMA boundaries at this time.
Independent Living in Rye – is a 135 unit luxury senior retirement community under construction at 120 Old Post
Road in Rye. It is located 4.3 miles northeast of the subject. Completion is scheduled in late 2018.
Rye Brook Senior Living (subject) - is an existing office building located at 900 King Street in Rye Brook, New
York. After demolition, the subject will have 160 independent living units, 12 independent living duplexes (24
cottages), and 85 assisted living beds (including a memory care component). We have estimated 35 beds for
memory care. We have included it in our 2019 forecast.
Brightview Senior Living of Harrison – is a proposed independent and assisted living community to be located on
600 Lake Street in West Harrison, New York. This four-story community will have a total of 160 units. The exact
unit mix has not been determined; however, for the purpose of our analysis we will designate 80 units to each care
type. In addition, we estimated 20 of the 80 assisted beds for memory care. Note, a significant legal battle ensued
as town residents sued the town board, planning board, and Brightview arguing the site was unfit for senior living.
In February 2017, a judge upheld the town board and planning board’s zoning amendment to allow for senior
housing. We have included it in our 2019 forecast.
Assisted Living Facility in Greenburgh – is a proposed assisted living community to be located on 715 Dobbs Ferry
Road in White Plains, New York. This facility is planned to consist of 101 units including a 30 unit memory care
component on 6.89 acres site. The Greenburgh Town Board approved the sale of the site to Capital Seniors
Housing LLC. It is unknown at this moment if the community will have memory care. We have included 101
assisted living units in our 2019 forecast.
The Solana Assisted Living - is a proposed assisted living community to be located on 448 Underhill Road in
Scarsdale, New York. Shelbourne Assisted Living is planning to build a total of 80 units. We have estimated 25 for
memory care. The facility is currently undergoing the entitlement process in the Town of Greenburgh. We have
included this project in our 2019 forecast.
Note that there is a proposed assisted living facility to be located near North Lawrence Avenue and North High
Street in Elmsford (Greenburgh), New York. This community will have 113 assisted living beds. According to the
planning department of Greenburgh, there has not been progress in the planning process since early 2015; hence,
we have not included it in our forecast. Also, the Hilton Westchester submitted plans to convert to an upscale 125
assisted living units, including 25 memory care units, but no progress has been made since 2014. We have not
included it in our forecast.
Residence at Summer Street in Stamford is currently under construction in downtown Stamford at 30 Oak Street.
It is to consist of 79 units for either independent living or assisted living plus a 25 unit memory care unit.
Construction is expected to be complete in summer 2018. It is located 5.8 miles northeast of the subject.
Although outside the subject’s PMA, it is worth noting due to proximity.
In our supply forecast, we will only include those facilities likely to be complete within the coming 24 months. These
facilities are set forth in the following tables.
Supply and Demand Analysis 68
Rye Brook Senior Living
Relevant Supply Likely to be Complete Within 24 Months 346
448 Underhill Road, Scarsdale
600 Lake Street, West Harrison
The Solana Assisted Living Proposed 80 8.0 100%80
Rye Brook Senior Living
Brightview Sr Living of Harrison Proposed 80 3.5 100%80
Assisted Living Facility - Greenburgh Proposed 101 7.5 100%101 715 Dobbs Ferry Rd, White Plains
Proposed 85 0.0 100%85 900 King Street, Rye Brook
Supply of Assisted Living Under Construction or Proposed
Property Name Current Status
Number of
Assisted
Living Beds
Miles From
Subject
Percent Beds
Considered
Competitive
Number of
Competitive
Beds
715 Dobbs Ferry Rd, White Plains
The Solana Assisted Living Proposed 25 8.0 100%25
Relevant Supply Likely to be Complete Within 24 Months 105
448 Underhill Road, Scarsdale
20 600 Lake Street, West Harrison
Assisted Living Facility - Greenburgh Proposed 30 7.5 100%30
900 King Street, Rye Brook
Brightview Sr Living of Harrison Proposed 20 3.5 100%
Rye Brook Senior Living Proposed 30 0.0 100%30
Supply of Memory Care Under Construction or Proposed
Property Name Current Status
Number of
Memory Care
Beds
Miles From
Subject
Percent Beds
Considered
Competitive
Number of
Competitive
Beds
Relevant Supply Likely to be Complete Within 24 Months 264
Brightview Sr Living of Harrison Proposed 80 3.5 100%80 600 Lake Street, West Harrison
Relevant Supply Likely to be Complete Within 12 Months 135
Rye Brook Senior Living Proposed 184 0.0 100%184 900 King Street, Rye Brook
Supply of Independent Living Under Construction or Proposed
Property Name Current Status
Number of
Independent
Living Units
Miles From
Subject
Percent Units
Considered
Competitive
Number of
Competitive
Units
Rye Independent Living Under Construction 135 4.3 100%135 120 Old Post Road, Rye, NY
Barriers to Entry
The subject is in a market with relatively high barriers to entry. These include:
• High cost of land
• Limited availability of vacant sites
• Difficulty in obtaining zoning approval
These barriers to entry will tend to limit future development.
Supply and Demand Analysis 69
Rye Brook Senior Living
Rye Brook Senior Living
Supply and Demand Analysis 70
Rye Brook Senior Living
Seniors Housing Demand Analysis
We will now analyze demand for seniors housing. Our analysis will show demand estimates for the current year,
each year for the following four, and 10 years from the current year.
The demand estimates will be based upon the quantity of four potential target groups who are likely users of
seniors housing. Analysis of these four target groups will provide four separate indications of demand for seniors
housing. We will then consider each one of them to derive our demand conclusions, much as the three approaches
to value in an appraisal are reconciled into a single value estimate. The target groups are as follows:
Target Group 1
Although the vast majority of persons entering seniors housing are age 80 and over, some persons between the
ages of 65 and 80 elect to live in seniors housing. Therefore, the broadest potential target group for seniors
housing is persons age 65 and over. The number of persons age 65+ is often considered in bed need
methodologies which are adopted by various state licensing agencies.
Target Group 2
The next potential target group typically examined in evaluating demand for seniors housing is the number of
households headed by an individual age 75 and over. The vast majority of seniors housing residents fall into the
75+ range.
Target Group 3
The next target group consists of the age qualified population that has adequate income to live in seniors housing.
Many operators consider $35,000 to be the minimum qualifying income. Although research has shown that many
seniors with lesser income levels can afford to reside in seniors housing due to having income from other sources
or assets to spend down, $35,000 is widely considered a benchmark for the private pay market. Due to the location
of the subject, this target group consists of the number of households with a household income of $35,000+
headed by an individual age 75+. Therefore, this target group has been utilized in this analysis.
Target Group 4
This group consists of a group referred to in the industry as adult children. Children and/or other relatives of
seniors generally play a significant role in the placement of a senior in a seniors housing facility. Market areas
where there are large concentrations of persons in the 45 to 64 age group can often support a significantly larger
supply of seniors housing than would be indicated through analysis of seniors already residing in the area. This is
because in-migration of seniors into markets with large adult child populations is common, as the elderly are often
relocated to a facility near the home of their adult children or other relative. Many operators of seniors housing
have recognized the importance of the adult child market. Thus, this target group is the number of persons in the
age 45 to 64 age bracket.
Income and ADL Qualification
Some in the industry apply additional qualifications to further refine the potential target market before applying a
penetration rate. These further qualifications might include quantification of seniors likely to require assistance with
ADLs and quantification of seniors by living arrangements, restricting the market to those living alone under the
assumption that few seniors living with spouses will choose seniors housing. However, there are no reliable local
sources to accurately estimate these factors in a given market area, typically leading to the use of national
statistics. These further qualifications tend to complicate the application and derivation of penetration rates, and
Supply and Demand Analysis 71
Rye Brook Senior Living
are a futile exercise since the same national data is typically applied to each market area. For this reason, we will
not attempt to further qualify the potential market.
Discussion of Achievable Penetration Rates
There are no industry standard definitions for penetration or capture rates. For purposes of this analysis, a
penetration rate is considered to be the number of beds or units of a specific type that should be demanded at
market equilibrium within a given market area, divided by the quantity of persons or households of a specific type
in the same market area. For example, if 100 beds of assisted living should be demanded, and there are 1,000
persons age 65+ that reside in the PMA, the indicated penetration rate is 10%.
In order to determine appropriate penetration rates, we consulted national demand estimates provided in The Case
for Investing in Seniors Housing and Long Term Care Properties with Updated Projections. We have also relied
upon actual penetration rates being realized based upon data from NIC Map.
The penetration rates are based upon demand for public and private pay. The inclusion of public pay demand
significantly impacts the nursing facility sector and has a lesser but still notable impact upon the other two sectors.
It is important to note that in states where Medicaid waivers and/or other public pay alternatives are not available,
these penetration rates may not be realized. These demand estimates, derived from the most complete and
authoritative study of national demand in existence, will be used as the basis for estimating demand in the
subject’s market area.
We have been evaluating seniors housing facilities since the mid-1980s. Over the years, we have worked with
many of the most prolific developers of seniors housing in the nation including Sunrise Senior Living, Holiday
Retirement, Senior Resource Group, Brookdale Senior Living, and Capital Senior Living. Most of the successful
developers and operators of private pay seniors housing target the adult child population (persons age 45 to 64). In
our tours of literally hundreds of facilities nationally, we always ask the source of residents and how often the
decision is made by an adult child caregiver. In most instances, the adult child caregiver is noted as being the
primary decision maker, and in many markets, more than 50% of the residents are brought in from outside the
PMA by adult child caregivers that live in the PMA. Thus, in our analysis, the adult child market (Target Group 4) is
given considerable weight.
We have also field tested the penetration rates, used herein, in the preparation of more than 3,000 market studies
and appraisals of seniors housing assets prepared over the past 10+ years. We have found these penetration
rates to be excellent predictors of actual market conditions. In other words, when our demand analysis indicated
there to be an undersupply, we typically found high market occupancy levels indicating unmet demand.
Alternatively, when our demand model showed an oversupply, we have typically seen low market occupancy
levels.
Supply and Demand Analysis 72
Rye Brook Senior Living
Demand Estimates
The following table shows the estimated number of persons or households in each target group for a number of
time periods, and the indicated demand for each period based upon the penetration rates previously discussed.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA Persons Age 65+54,212 55,612 57,012 58,413 59,813 61,213 69,118
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)1,094 1,122 1,151 1,179 1,207 1,235 1,395
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA HHs Age 75+16,064 16,335 16,607 16,878 17,150 17,421 18,893
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)1,065 1,083 1,101 1,119 1,137 1,155 1,252
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA HHs Age 75+ W/Inc. $35,000+11,314 11,544 11,773 12,003 12,232 12,462 13,726
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 21.6%21.6%21.6%21.6%21.6%21.6%21.6%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)2,439 2,488 2,538 2,587 2,637 2,686 2,959
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA Persons Age 45-64 65,489 69,424 73,360 77,295 81,231 85,166 110,755
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)746 791 836 881 926 971 1,262
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
Indicated Demand 1,593 1,640 1,687 1,734 1,781 1,828 2,111
Adjustment for Local Market Conditions 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Concluded Demand 1,593 1,640 1,687 1,734 1,781 1,828 2,111
Item Year
Demand Conclusions
Item Year
Target Group 4 - Persons Age 45-64 (Adult Children)
Demand For Assisted Living
Item
Year
Item
Target Group 3 - Households Age 75+ With Income $35,000+
Year
Target Group 2 - Households Age 75+
Target Group 1 - Persons Age 65+
Year
Item
The demand indication for each target group is independent of the other three demand indications. In this case, our
final demand conclusions is weighted 50% to Target Group 3 - age and income qualified seniors, and 50% to
Target Group 4 - adult children. These two indications of demand are the best indicators of demand for private pay
seniors housing.
Supply and Demand Analysis 73
Rye Brook Senior Living
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA Persons Age 65+55,612 57,012 58,413 59,813 61,213 69,118
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)1,573 1,612 1,652 1,691 1,731 1,954
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA HHs Age 75+16,335 16,607 16,878 17,150 17,421 18,893
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 9.3%9.3%9.3%9.3%9.3%9.3%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)1,517 1,542 1,567 1,593 1,618 1,754
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA HHs Age 75+ W/Inc. $35,000+11,544 11,773 12,003 12,232 12,462 13,726
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 30.2%30.2%30.2%30.2%30.2%30.2%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)3,486 3,556 3,625 3,694 3,764 4,146
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. PMA Persons Age 45-64 69,424 73,360 77,295 81,231 85,166 110,755
B. Achievable Penetration Rate 1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%
C. Indicated Market Area Demand (A X B)1,109 1,172 1,234 1,297 1,360 1,769
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
Indicated Demand 2,298 2,364 2,430 2,496 2,562 2,957
Adjustment for Local Market Conditions 0%0%0%0%0%0%
Concluded Demand 2,298 2,364 2,430 2,496 2,562 2,957
Year
Year
Target Group 1 - Persons Age 65+
Item
Demand For Independent Living
Item Year
Target Group 2 - Households Age 75+
Item
Target Group 3 - Households Age 75+ With Income $35,000+
Demand Conclusions
Target Group 4 - Persons Age 45-64 (Adult Children)
Item Year
Item Year
The demand indication for each target group is independent of the other three demand indications. In this case, our
final demand conclusions is weighted 50% to Target Group 3 - age and income qualified seniors, and 50% to
Target Group 4 - adult children. These two indications of demand are the best indicators of demand for private pay
seniors housing.
Supply and Demand Analysis 74
Rye Brook Senior Living
Comparison of Supply and Demand
The following table summarizes our conclusions of supply and demand for assisted living (including memory care).
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. Indicated Demand 1,593 1,640 1,687 1,734 1,781 1,828 2,111
B. Less Existing Supply 621 621 621 967 967 967 967
C. Existing Unmet Demand or Oversupply 972 1,019 1,066 767 814 861 1,144
D. Additions/Subtractions to Supply 0 0 346 0 N.A.N.A.N.A.
E. Unmet Demand After Additions 972 1,019 720 767 814 861 1,144
Comparison of Supply and Demand For Assisted Living
Item Year
Our analysis shows that the PMA has an undersupply of assisted living (including memory care) in the current
year. This is supported by the strong overall weighted average assisted living/memory care occupancy of 95%.
Several known pipeline projects are forecast to come online within the next 24 to 36 months. These projects
combine for a total of 346 assisted living/memory care beds (including the subject’s 85 assisted living beds – which
include a 30-bed memory care component).
As noted previously, demand for memory care is a subset of overall assisted living demand. Memory care facilities
are normally licensed the same as standard assisted living facilities. Furthermore, it is relatively easy for facilities to
begin or cease providing specialized memory care since the physical plant requirements are not significantly
different and the license is not different. We have previously determined demand for all assisted living, including
memory care.
As of the 2nd quarter of 2017, NIC MAP reported that there were 388,489 assisted living units and 120,209
memory care units in the top 140 metro markets. Thus, the combined assisted living supply count inclusive of
memory care was 508,698 units. The memory care assisted living supply figure in turn equated to 23.63% of the
total assisted living supply. The average occupancy was 87.6% for assisted living and 84.4% for memory care,
indicating that demand between the two segments is near a balanced level.
However, we believe this provides just a starting point, and, in fact, understates potential demand for memory care
for several reasons. Firstly, memory care units are much more likely to be semi-private than traditional assisted
living, and the statistics noted above are based upon units, not beds. Therefore, the quantity of memory care units
above has a much higher level of double occupancy, thus the demand on a bed, rather than unit basis, would be
much higher as a percent of total demand. Furthermore, many residents of traditional assisted living have mild to
moderate memory care issues and would be better suited for residency in a memory care facility, but the supply of
memory care units is lacking in many markets.
According to the Alzheimer’s Association, there are approximately 480,000 people age 65 or older that developed
Alzheimer’s disease in the United States in 2017. Also, the Alzheimer’s Association provided the following data
regarding projected change by state for those residents with Alzheimer’s disease.
Supply and Demand Analysis 75
Rye Brook Senior Living
Supply and Demand Analysis 76
Rye Brook Senior Living
As shown in the figures above, between 2017 and 2025, every state and region across the county is expected to
experience double-digit percentage increases in the numbers of people with Alzheimer’s due to increases in the
proportion of the population 65 and older.
Major operators of memory care facilities such as Brookdale, Capital Senior Living, and Benchmark believe that
demand for memory care is as high as 38% of total assisted living demand. Based upon this, we will estimate
demand for memory care at 35% of total assisted living demand.
Supply and Demand Analysis 77
Rye Brook Senior Living
The following table summarizes our conclusions of supply and demand for memory care.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. Indicated Demand 557 574 590 607 623 640 739
B. Less Existing Supply 166 166 166 271 271 271 271
C. Existing Unmet Demand or Oversupply 391 408 424 336 352 369 468
D. Additions/Subtractions to Supply 0 0 105 0 N.A.N.A.N.A.
E. Unmet Demand After Additions 391 408 319 336 352 369 468
Comparison of Supply and Demand For Memory Care
Item Year
Our analysis shows that the PMA has an under-supply of memory care in the current year. This is supported by the
92% level for the memory care subset. Several known pipeline projects are forecast to come online within the next
24 to 36 months. These projects combine for a total of 110 memory care beds (including the subject’s 35-bed
memory care component).
The following table summarizes our conclusions of supply and demand for independent living:
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027
A. Indicated Demand 2,231 2,298 2,364 2,430 2,496 2,562 2,957
B. Less Existing Supply 548 548 683 947 947 947 947
C. Existing Unmet Demand or Oversupply 1,683 1,750 1,681 1,483 1,549 1,615 2,010
D. Additions/Subtractions to Supply 0 135 264 0 N.A.N.A.N.A.
E. Unmet Demand After Additions 1,683 1,615 1,417 1,483 1,549 1,615 2,010
Item Year
Comparison of Supply and Demand For Independent Living
Our analysis shows that the PMA has an under-supply of independent living in the current year. This is supported
by the strong overall weighted average independent living occupancy of 97%. There is one known project under
construction that will add 135 competitive units in 2018. The subject’s 184 units plus one additional project with 80
units are forecast to come online in 2019. These two projects combine for a total of 264 independent living units.
Supply and Demand Analysis 78
Rye Brook Senior Living
Supply and Demand Conclusion
The PMA is a growing market with high barriers to entry. Our analysis shows that the assisted living (including
memory care) and independent living segments to be under-supplied at this time. This is supported by the higher
occupancies reported throughout each segment (95% for assisted living (including memory care), 92% specific to
memory care, and 93% for independent living). Several known pipeline projects are forecast to come online within
the next 24 to 36 months. These projects combine for a total of 399 independent living units (including the subject’s
184 independent living units) and 346 assisted living/memory care beds (including the subject’s 85 assisted living
beds, of which 30 of which are to be dedicated memory care).
• There are currently 621 competitive assisted living beds within the PMA. With a demand figure for 1,687
beds in 2019 and a pipeline supply of 346 beds (including the subject’s 85 assisted living beds – which
includes a 30-bed memory care component), there is forecast to be excess demand for an additional 720
beds.
• Specific to memory care, with a total supply figure of only 166 competitive beds, a pipeline supply of 110
beds (including the subject’s 30-bed memory care component), and an estimated demand figure for 590
beds in 2019, there is forecast to be excess unmet demand for an additional 319 beds.
• Lastly, there are 548 competitive independent living units within the PMA at this time. With an anticipated
demand figure for 2,364 units in 2019 and a pipeline supply of 399 units (including the subject’s 160
independent living units), there is indicated to be excess demand for an additional 1,417 units.
Considering the strong growth forecast in seniors housing over the next few years, market conditions are
anticipated to continually improve and strengthen. Development of the subject as proposed with 160 independent
living units, 12 independent living duplexes (24 cottages), and 85 assisted living beds (including a 30-bed memory
care component). Development should proceed as planned.